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Prediction for CME (2021-04-22T05:23:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-04-22T05:23Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16772/-1
CME Note: Associated with an eruption visible in STEREO A EUVI 195 and SDO AIA 171/193 beginning 2021-04-22T04:21Z, and associated with C3.8 flare beginning at 2021-04-22T04:10 and peaking at 2021-04-22T04:35Z. There is some northeastern deflection apparent in the available EUV imagery. Arrival signaled by sudden rise in Btotal from 5 to 8 nT at 2021-04-2422:24Z, followed shortly by an increase in Btotal to above 10 nT, accompanied by jumps in velocity, density, and temperature as measured by DSCOVR.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T22:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-04-24T20:16Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2021-04-22 09:37
 - Time at C2: 2021-04-22 05:23
 - Radial speed: 803.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 30 deg
 - Eruption location: S13E08
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: C3.8 (S25W06). Peak at 2021-04-22 04:10
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 623.13 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2021-04-24 20:16 (i.e. predicted transit time: 62.90 hours)
   - Kp= 5

Lead Time: 51.40 hour(s)
Difference: 2.13 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2021-04-22T19:00Z

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